Response to the Government’s Integrated Review
First Published 2021
Some brief observations on the defence element of the Johnson government’s recent Integrated Review but, we must first set the tone of the overall narrative.
Having read both the Integrated Review and its accompanying report “Defence in a Competitive Age” the most striking theme was the frequency with which “Covid19” and “climate change” are mentioned ( a total of 107 times between them). One cannot not help but come away with the impression that Johnson’s strategy will be dominated by green policy (the report mentions “Net Zero” and the “Green Industrial Revolution” 20 times) and that Covid19 has provided him with a very convenient excuse for pursuing a policy direction most of us did not and never would vote for.
Despite the review seemingly lamenting the global erosion of democracy and freedom over the last decade (ironic given the Johnson government’s assault on freedom and democracy at home), China barely gets a mention in this context.
The defence element of the review rightly identifies the potential threats from rapidly developing technologies, such as artificial intelligence and cyber-warfare, and a rapidly changing geo-political landscape, particularly the eastward shift of the World’s economic power but, the document is heavy on headlines and light on detail.
It envisages British forces being deployed more often and for longer periods and an increased permanent presence around the World via bolstered defence attaches and other military advisers. However, this is not squared by the proposed and significant reduction in Army personnel from 82,000, a level Johnson had promised to maintain, to 72,000. The Army is also facing the loss of scores of main battle tanks, with a planned compliment of just 148 Challenger III vehicles (upgraded Challenger II), down from 227 (at the height of the Cold War we had 1200). The new Ajax tracked modular armoured vehicle is also so heavy (38 tonnes) that it takes two A400M aircraft to transport just three of these vehicles (in modular form). It is not clear how this reduced force will be able to service the proposed increase in commitments at home and overseas.
The Royal Air Force is to see the retirement of the Hawk training aircraft (currently used by the Red Arrows), the C130J Hercules transport aircraft (after 23 years service, the previous model having served for 46 years) and some of the older Typhoon fighter aircraft. A number of the older Chinook helicopters, which are over 40 years old, will also be replaced with new, longer range variants.
The Royal Navy looks set to benefit from a significant equipment upgrade but, it’s not clear how overall numbers will pan out. This will be covered in more detail in another article.
On the procurement front, new equipment purchases look set to benefit the EU, with the UK having rejoined the Boxer armoured vehicle project in 2018, under May. We had originally pulled out of the programme in 2003 because the Army considered Boxer too heavy. Failure of an alternative procurement process saw us rejoin the programme. Boxer is currently built in Germany.
The UK is also participating in the “Future Air Combat System”, which is a European multi-platform approach to future combat aircraft requirements which includes manned and unmanned aircraft. The Bae “Tempest”, a joint project involving UK, Italy and Sweden is touted as the manned fighter contender but, an Airbus/Dassault led consortium is already ahead of the game. Some industry insiders believe Tempest will never happen.
References:
Global Britain in a Competitive Age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy
Defence in a Competitive Age describes Defence’s contribution to the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.